Freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich leads Jon Barela, his Republican challenger, by 49-42 percent, according to a poll of 400 voters released today by the conservative group American Action Forum. The poll (pdf) was conducted from August 23-26 and August 29, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

Read the full article . . .

ALBUQUERQUE, NM-- Diane Denish today applauded the U.S. Department of Education for designating $64.9 million approved by Congress for education jobs in New Mexico.

"During these difficult times this is a huge boost for New Mexico's schools and children," said Diane Denish. "This is money that will go directly into the classroom -- keeping teachers on the job across our state. I applaud the Department of Education and our Congressional delegation for recognizing the need and fighting for these funds. While Susana Martinez has been silent on these funds, I have strongly supported this much-needed federal help. Where is Martinez on this issue? Does she stand with her National Republican friends who have opposed this funding?"

The federal funding was announced today with Education Secretary Arne Duncan praising New Mexico for its quick response in applying for the federal help.

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Martinez Has High Hopes for Repeal of Medical Marijuana – Trip Jennings, NM Independent

Republican Susana Martinez has said she would work to repeal New Mexico’s medical marijuana program if she’s elected governor. But  undoing the state’s three-year-old medical marijuana law would represent a major undertaking. There are only two routes — through the Legislature or voter referendum — and neither would be easy.

Repealing the law through the Legislature is unlikely

Collecting enough votes among state lawmakers to overturn the law is a long shot. The New Mexico State Senate approved the 2007 bill by a vote of 32- 3. And although state Sen. Vernon Asbill, R-Carlsbad, one of those three “no” votes, said Monday he’d vote for repeal, he also said it didn’t seem likely to happen.

There’s been no dramatic shift in lawmakers opinions on the medical marijuana program and there probably won’t be, “unless there is some large-scale abuse—and that hasn’t been reported,” Asbill said.

The bill passed the New Mexico House of Representatives by a smaller margin, a vote of  36-31, but changing a few votes in the House wouldn’t do the trick either: Repealing a law requires approval from both the House and Senate.

Sen. Rod Adair, R-Roswell, offered a possible explanation why a repeal would prove difficult.

“Our law was drafted very differently than in California,” said Adair, who was among a broad spectrum of bipartisan supporters of the legislation.

Unlike California, which is generally seen as much more lenient, Adair noted, New Mexico’s law is much more strict, licensing marijuana producers only after they clear several hurdles.

Repeal is possible—though unlikely—through voter referendum

An even rockier path for overturning a state law than the legislative route is through a voter referendum. But the last time New Mexico voters successfully repealed a law using a referendum was in the 1930s, according to the Legislative Council Service. Referendums in the 1950s and 1960s failed.

Talk of a voter referendum is moot anyway. Opponents missed the narrow window allowed by the state constitution. In order to repeal the law by referendum, petitions should have been filed prior to the general election immediately following the legislative session during which the law passed; in other words, in 2008.

The governor could tighten program regulations

If elected governor, Martinez could appoint a secretary of health hostile to the program, officials said. Because governors control executive branch agencies, the state’s chief executive could direct an agency to make regulations so strict that they effectively stop a program’s day-to-day operations. The Martinez didn’t answer our questions about whether she might choose such an option if elected governor.

But gutting a program to the point where producers couldn’t grow plants and patients couldn’t buy from them could pose its own challenges, one medical marijuana advocate said.

“It would really be an abuse of an agency’s authority to thwart the law by regulating medical marijuana away,” said Tamar Todd, staff attorney of the Drug Policy Alliance. “That might be subject to a legal challenge.”

“The New Mexico Department of Health has really embraced the problem and tried to work with people,” Todd said. “I don’t know if the governor would have the power to come in and change it.”

New Mexico’s program, intentionally strict, has grown slowly

New Mexico’s law is considered among the most restrictive of the 14 states that have medical marijuana programs. New Mexico licenses marijuana dispensaries, but only after they clear several hurdles.

The state Department of Health then regulates how the cannabis is distributed to patients, but only after they present doctor-certified documents proving they suffer from one of several qualifying illnesses.

So far, the state has licensed 11 nonprofits to produce and distribute the cannabis to 2,250 active patients, according to Deborah Busemeyer, spokeswoman for the New Mexico Department of Health.

Roughly 1,022 of those patients are licensed to grow cannabis, but only for themselves. “They cannot distribute and sell it,” Busemeyer said.

Because the program relies on “available resources,” meaning it doesn’t benefit from a dedicated stream of revenue, cost-saving measures aimed at shutting down the program also would hurt other programs at the Department of Health, already the target of deep cuts over the past two years.

The state health agency announced some proposals it  hopes will make the medical marijuana program more financially self-sufficient.

Candidates for governor disagree on medical marijuana

Martinez has not said exactly how she might repeal the program, or if a repeal proved unworkable, what measures she might take to reduce or scale back the program. Martinez’s campaign didn’t respond to those questions from The Independent on Monday.

But Martinez reiterated her opposition to The Daily Lobo last week.

“I do not support distributing marijuana for any purposes, which is in violation of federal law,” Martinez told University of New Mexico’s student paper. “There are many other treatments for patients in need that do not break federal law.”

Her rival, Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, approves of the law, telling the Daily Lobo that “No one with a chronically painful or terminal illness should be denied a treatment option that has been clinically proven to reduce pain and suffering.”

Heinrich leads Barela in 1st Congressional race, Journal Poll finds

Journal Poll: Heinrich Beating Barela 47% to 41% in NM-01

According to a new poll conducted by Research and Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, Democratic incumbent candidateRep. Martin Heinrich holds a 6-point lead over his GOP opponent Jon Barela -- 47% to 41% -- with 12% of those polled still undecided. The telephone survey of 402 likely voters, conducted August 23-27, 2010, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points, according to the Journal. The margin of error for the subsets increases according to the Journal, but we don't know by how much.

Additional data released by the Journal:

Ethnicity
Anglos for Heinrich 42%
Anglos for Barela 46%

Hispanics for Heinrich 54%
Hispanics for Barela 33%

Party Lines
Democrats for Heinrich 75%
Democrats for Barela 12%

Republicans for Heinrich 11%
Republicans for Barela 83%

Independents for Heinrich 45%
Independents for Barela 31%

Among Hispanic Democrats
Hispanic Democrats for Heinrich 70%
Hispanic Democrats for Barela 14%

Age Groups
Aged 18-34 for Heinrich 56%
Aged 18-34 for Barela 36%

Aged 65 and Over for Heinrich 40%
Aged 65 and Over for Barela 46%

As always, the Journal, which holds a financial interest in Brian Sanderoff's polling company, did not release full cross-tab data when reporting on the results. Unlike the purchasers of most serious political polls and most respected polling firms themselves, the Journal continues to pick and choose which data it makes available to the public, and which it keeps hidden.

Previous Polls
In leaked results of a poll supposedly conducted on behalf of an unnamed statewide candidate in mid-August, Barela was alleged ahead by a couple points.

In an automated telephone poll by SurveyUSA conducted on behalf of KOB-TV on July 22-25, 2010, Barela was leading Heinrich by 6 points, or a margin of 51% to 45% with only 4% of respondents undecided.

In a poll conducted for the Heinrich campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research around the same time as the SurveyUSA survey, Heinrich held a 12-point lead over Barela, 53% to 41%.

These early polling results are preliminary snapshots of the NM-01 race taken before most ordinary voters are paying attention. Traditionally, races kick into higher gear after Labor Day weekend when political TV ads start proliferating the candidates start campaigning in earnest. In the NM-01 race, Rep. Heinrich started running his first TV ad last week, early by the standards of the past and indicative that Rep. Heinrich has the money to do so. Barela has not yet aired any TV ads.

Monday, August 30, 2010

New Polling: Heinrich Breathes Easier; Teague Leads Pearce

Rep. Heinrich
After a summer of uncertainty the first re-election bid of ABQ Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich appears to be back on track. The freshman lawmaker has a six point lead--47% to 41%--over Republican rival Jon Barela in the first ABQ Journal poll and that's a welcome relief to Heinrich and state Dems. Both were freaked out by a SurveyUSA poll July 26 that showed Barela leading the incumbent 51% to 45%.

We said at the time that Barela should enjoy that poll and raise all the money he could from it because it was unlikely to last. Now that it hasn't the GOP challenger has his work cut out for him.

Not that Heinrich is completely out of the woods. Pollster Brian Sanderoff notes the sour national mood for congressional Dems and the danger that poses to a freshman like Heinrich. Also, Barela is scoring 33% of the Hispanic vote to Heinrich's 54%. If Barela could build on that he could be formidable.

Still, Heinrich was scoring 45% with critical independents to Barela's 31%. These voters tend to be on the conservative side and for Heinrich to be so nicely ahead with them this early is perhaps the most significant "tell" in this race. It could cause fund-raising headaches for Jon.

Heinrich has also begun to localize this contest to survive any GOP tsunami wave that splashes down here. His first TV ad is abut the time he spends in the district, not the votes he takes in Washington.

Barela has run a bare-bones campaign thus far and is expected to soon launch media. But he only had about $500,000 in the bank at last report. That would be all right if he were closer, but Heinrich is only three points away from the magic number of 50% and has over a million in cash with more on the way. His 47% beginning reminds us of how former ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson started most of her campaigns, and she served ten years.

This poll sets the record straight--Barela is going to need more than the anti-incumbent environment to take Heinrich out. Until he shows us what, if anything, is up his sleeve, Heinrich remains in pretty decent shape to be re-elected.

THE SOUTHERN RACE
Rep. Teague
Harry Teague has been left for dead by every political handicapper from DC to Deming, but somehow the freshman Dem still breathes. In fact, in the Journal poll he does more than breathe. He manages to step on the windpipe of his Republican challenger. He tops Republican Steve Pearce 45% to 42% with 13 percent undecided. That tops expectations as the R's see this as a great pick-up opportunity.

Teague's chief asset is his personality. He is extremely likable and fits the southern good ol' boy district like a glove. And like Heinrich he has been working hard to keep the race away from unpopular national issues and focus on the what he has done in the district and the time he has spent there.

But there could be big trouble to come for Teague in the conservative south. Harry has had major issues with his oil related businesses in Hobbs. Stuff like health insurance being cancelled for his employees while he takes a big bonus.

If the negative message is delivered effectively, it could make Harry of Hobbs much less likable and ultimately less electable.

But former Congressman Steve Pearce who left the seat in 2o08 to unsuccessfully seek a US Senate seat has his own baggage, not the least of which is his decision to leave the House. Also, he is more gruff than likable and a heavy negative attack on Teague is not a sure thing.

The race remains a toss-up. Maybe Susana Martinez running strong for the GOP n the Guv race in the south might be a plus for Pearce, but New Mexicans can be such notorious ticket-splitters that we wouldn't give that much weight.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Teague Leads Pearce 45% to 42% in NM-02 According to Journal Poll

Give 'em hell, Harry! Today the Albuquerque Journal is reporting that Harry Teague is leading Congressman Steve Pearce in the 2nd Congressional District race according to apoll of 404 likely voters conducted August 23-27, 2010. The poll, conducted by Research & Polling Inc., found Teague leading Pearce by a margin of 45% to 42% among likely voters, with 13 undecided, and also showed Teague with a strong lead among the key group of likely Independent voters. See below for more results released by the Journal.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said in the article that, "Harry Teague surprised the world two years ago when he won in a Republican district. Now we see that he is still hanging in there against a former incumbent in a conservative year in a conservative district.” Sanderoff added, “Teague seems to have some staying power, and it appears that it will be a close race."

Harry Teague's Campaign Manager, Dominic Gabello, weighed in on the the poll results with a written statement today:

“This poll shows that Harry Teague has proven to be the kind of representative people in southern New Mexico want. Harry is hard working and independent. He stays in touch, he’s working to change Washington, and he has stood up for our veterans and has fought to secure our borders,” Gabello said. “We are encouraged by these poll numbers, but Harry is taking nothing for granted. This is still a tough race and Harry is going to keep doing what he’s been doing, working hard for the people and communities he represents.”

Party Lines
Democrats for Teague 76%
Democrats for Pearce 12%

Republicans for Teague 9%
Republicans for Pearce 81%

Independents for Teague 37%
Independents for Pearce 33%

Ethnicity
Hispanics for Teague 59%
Hispanics for Pearce 24%

The Journal said Pearce polled better among people under 50, while Teague had more support among likely voters over 50, but it didn't provide the exact numbers or any data on other age breakdowns. They released no numbers on other demographic results.

The Journal says the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points with larger margins of error in the subcategories, although the it doesn't say how much larger.